It's no surprise Big Lots has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Big Lots, Inc. (BIG): Free Stock Analysis Report.

Big Lots Inc stock price down 0.73% on Friday (Updated on January 29, 2021)

Buy or Hold candidate since 2021-01-12Gain 22.27% PDF

The Big Lots Inc stock price fell by -0.73% on the last day (Friday, 29th Jan 2021) from $60.12 to $59.68. and has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the day the stock fluctuated 5.67% from a day low at $59.31 to a day high of $62.67. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 14.37% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -2 million shares and in total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $70.37 million.

Since the release of Big Lots' fiscal third-quarter 2019 earnings on Dec. 6, its stock has soared by a blistering 51% and rebounded to an essentially flat showing year to date.
Is already bracing for financial impacts of the coronavirus. The Columbus-based retailer (NYSE: BIG) doesn't do business in China, so it has been spared the brunt of the bloodletting.

The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and weak rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 4.43% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $45.03 and $68.03 at the end of this 3-month period.

Signals & Forecast

The Big Lots Inc stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $55.70 and $48.01. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 months Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, January 27, 2021, and so far it has fallen -8.26%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $48.19 and $46.98. There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Big Lots Inc finds support just below today's level at $48.19. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $46.98 and $45.16.

This stock may move very much during a day (volatility) and with a very large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be 'very high risk'. During the last day, the stock moved $3.36 between high and low, or 5.67%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 11.16%.

Our recommended stop-loss:$56.36 (-5.56%) (This stock has very high daily movements and this gives very high risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 2 day(s) ago.)

Is Big Lots Inc stock A Buy?

Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Big Lots Inc stock to perform well in the short-term.

Current score:1.735

Predicted Opening Price for Big Lots Inc of Monday, February 1, 2021

The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and the closing price.

Fair opening price February 1, 2021	Current price
$60.55	$59.68(Undervalued)

Loop Capital is very positive to BIG and gave it a 'Buy' rating on January 14, 2021. The price target was set to $65.00 → $60.00.Over the last 30 days, this security got 2 buy, 1 sell and 3 hold ratings.

11.16 %
Daily Average Volatility

Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very Low

Resistance: $60.12
Price: $59.68
Support: $48.19

What happened

Shares of discount-retailer Big Lots(NYSE: BIG) fell on Friday after the company reported results for the third quarter of 2020. It's actually hard to find much to nitpick from the third-quarter report, but perhaps management's lack of forward guidance was enough to shake out low-conviction investors. As of 12:30 p.m. EST, Big Lots stock was down 9%.

So what

In Q3, Big Lots reported revenue of almost $1.4 billion, up 18% year over year. On the bottom line, the company reported net income of $30 million. This breaks down to $0.76 in earnings per share (EPS), ahead of guidance. Management had guided for EPS of $0.50 to $0.70. Going forward sales look strong -- it put holiday items out early and that seems to be paying off. That said, management stopped short of giving official forward guidance.

Considering Big Lots stock's incredible run so far, lack of forward guidance could be enough for some investors to book their gains and move on. That's because it's likely many Big Lots investors are new. The stock traded in deep value territory at the bottom of the market crash and many likely bought into this cheap stock somewhere along the ride back up. Since the bottom, the stock is up over 300%.

Now what

Big Lots today also declared a dividend of $0.30 per share, which puts the current dividend yield over 2%. That's a good dividend. And the stock trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio under three. That's a really low valuation. Remember, the company is in the middle of a strategic turnaround. Given the company's appealing valuation metrics, it's worth dissecting the business plan to see if this could be a cheap turnaround stock to buy.

Jon Quast has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Lisa Bachmann Big Lots

Big Lots Stock

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Why Is Big Lots Stock Down